Top Forecasters
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Stormpulse / Hurricane and severe weather tracking, mappingTrack, Map, Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Severe Weather
Thu, Jul 2, 2009, 07:22 PM EDT
Forecaster Rankings [Forecasting Explained]
Blue and yellow—how the forecaster's performance compares with the NHC's 5-year average for the given forecast interval; blue numbers (e.g.: +12.110) indicate worse performance than the NHC; yellow numbers (e.g.: -12.110) indicate better performance than the NHC.
Because the excellence of any model must be proven over several seasons, this is not yet intended to imply that these forecasters are superior to the NHC at forecasting the paths and development of tropical cyclones. This should be interpreted as a free experiment with active involvement from experts and novices alike.
Storm Position
White numbers—number of miles the forecaster errs, on average, for the given forecast interval.
Grey numbers—number of forecasts by the forecaster for the given forecast interval.
An * asterisk indicates forecaster has completed fewer than 10 forecasts for at least one forecast interval.
| Forecaster | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 | 96 | 120 | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 18.054 -23.374 3 | 19.460 -51.888 3 | 39.470 -62.949 3 | 75.300 -52.436 3 | 86.722 -105.458 2 | 168.448 -96.231 2 | 209.436 -138.100 1 | 81.908 | |
| 2. | 74.127 +32.699 2 | 82.925 +11.577 2 | 98.984 -3.435 2 | 43.858 -83.879 2 | 85.279 -106.901 2 | 139.172 -125.508 2 | 226.214 -121.321 2 | 62.803 | |
| 3. | 27.479 -13.949 3 | 47.935 -23.413 3 | 72.346 -30.074 3 | 81.295 -46.442 3 | 134.880 -57.300 3 | 202.896 -61.783 3 | — 0 | 38.999 | |
| 4. | 14.273 -27.155 1 | 28.408 -42.940 1 | 28.277 -74.142 1 | 55.306 -72.430 1 | 193.389 +1.209 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 34.632 | |
| 5. | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.000 -192.180 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 28.087 | |
| 6. | 39.242 -2.186 9 | 49.476 -21.872 9 | 73.545 -28.874 8 | 100.169 -27.567 8 | 195.229 +3.048 5 | 198.300 -66.379 2 | — 0 | 27.740 | |
| 7. | — 0 | — 0 | 28.303 -74.116 1 | 27.404 -100.332 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 26.738 | |
| 8. | 55.814 +14.386 9 | 64.277 -7.071 8 | 97.931 -4.488 7 | 129.585 +1.849 7 | 188.361 -3.819 4 | 153.775 -110.904 1 | — 0 | 22.354 | |
| 9. | 21.271 -20.157 1 | 51.239 -20.109 1 | 73.991 -28.428 1 | 98.789 -28.948 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 17.168 | |
| 10. | 19.692 -21.736 4 | 34.810 -36.538 4 | 51.457 -50.962 4 | 56.011 -71.726 4 | 197.609 +5.429 3 | 385.433 +120.754 1 | — 0 | 13.421 | |
| 11. | 59.608 +18.180 1 | 89.459 +18.111 1 | 121.726 +19.307 1 | 75.366 -52.371 1 | 74.373 -117.807 1 | 346.945 +82.266 1 | — 0 | 9.153 | |
| 12. | 13.421 -28.007 1 | 104.503 +33.154 1 | 77.170 -25.249 1 | 125.089 -2.648 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 6.469 | |
| 13. | 64.436 +23.008 2 | 66.564 -4.785 2 | 53.732 -48.688 2 | 50.526 -77.211 2 | 133.166 -59.014 2 | 323.292 +58.613 2 | 463.975 +116.440 1 | 4.677 | |
| 14. | 36.887 -4.541 1 | 79.071 +7.722 1 | 118.064 +15.645 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -0.718 | |
| 15. | 51.239 +9.811 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -0.876 | |
| 16. | 71.027 +29.599 8 | 118.411 +47.063 8 | 130.918 +28.498 8 | 109.472 -18.264 8 | 121.856 -70.324 6 | 261.957 -2.722 5 | 411.829 +64.294 4 | -1.848 | |
| 17. | 63.295 +21.867 2 | 79.776 +8.428 2 | 120.865 +18.446 2 | 155.230 +27.493 2 | 200.255 +8.074 1 | 248.542 -16.137 1 | — 0 | -4.942 | |
| 18. | 41.459 +0.030 1 | 189.002 +117.653 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -15.410 | |
| 19. | 48.731 +7.303 3 | 76.977 +5.629 3 | 109.904 +7.484 3 | 169.185 +41.449 3 | 295.734 +103.553 2 | — 0 | — 0 | -19.120 | |
| 20. | 77.856 +36.428 1 | 115.084 +43.736 1 | 47.802 -54.618 1 | 91.378 -36.358 1 | 197.804 +5.624 1 | 294.494 +29.815 1 | 787.489 +439.954 1 | -61.088 | |
| 21. | 95.317 +53.889 1 | 186.682 +115.334 1 | 264.660 +162.240 1 | 272.409 +144.672 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -64.800 | |
| 22. | 8800.343 +8758.915 1 | 8597.358 +8526.010 1 | 8417.893 +8315.474 1 | 8271.436 +8143.699 1 | 8075.378 +7883.198 1 | 7987.983 +7723.303 1 | — 0 | -7045.549 |
Storm Intensity (Wind Speed)
White numbers—number of miles the forecaster errs, on average, for the given forecast interval. A positive number indicates an over-estimate and a negative number indicates an under-estimate.
Grey numbers—number of forecasts by the forecaster for the given forecast interval.
An * asterisk indicates forecaster has completed fewer than 10 forecasts for at least one forecast interval.
| Forecaster | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 | 96 | 120 | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 2.125 +-3.629 8 | -0.250 +-10.607 8 | 5.625 +-8.184 8 | 4.750 +-12.512 8 | 5.333 +-16.532 6 | -16.800 +-40.966 5 | -9.000 +-34.317 4 | 11.004 | |
| 2. | 5.000 +-0.754 1 | 5.000 +-5.357 1 | 5.000 +-8.809 1 | 15.000 +-2.262 1 | 5.000 +-16.865 1 | -10.000 +-34.166 1 | — 0 | 6.922 | |
| 3. | 3.333 +-2.421 3 | 6.667 +-3.690 3 | 10.000 +-3.809 3 | 5.000 +-12.262 3 | -13.333 +-35.198 3 | -8.333 +-32.500 3 | — 0 | 6.749 | |
| 4. | 5.000 +-0.754 1 | 5.000 +-5.357 1 | 0.000 +-13.809 1 | -30.000 +-47.262 1 | -20.000 +-41.865 1 | -10.000 +-34.166 1 | -10.000 +-35.317 1 | 5.532 | |
| 5. | 5.000 +-0.754 1 | 10.000 +-0.357 1 | 10.000 +-3.809 1 | 0.000 +-17.262 1 | -20.000 +-41.865 1 | -10.000 +-34.166 1 | — 0 | 5.486 | |
| 6. | -7.222 +-12.976 9 | -6.250 +-16.607 8 | -10.714 +-24.524 7 | 10.714 +-6.547 7 | 20.000 +-1.865 4 | -5.000 +-29.166 1 | — 0 | 4.840 | |
| 7. | 7.500 +1.746 2 | 10.000 +-0.357 2 | 12.500 +-1.309 2 | 20.000 +2.738 2 | 15.000 +-6.865 2 | 17.500 +-6.666 2 | 2.500 +-22.817 2 | 4.838 | |
| 8. | 0.000 +-5.754 1 | 0.000 +-10.357 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 2.313 | |
| 9. | — 0 | — 0 | 10.000 +-3.809 1 | -15.000 +-32.262 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.872 | |
| 10. | -15.000 +-20.754 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -1.327 | |
| 11. | 10.000 +4.246 2 | 15.000 +4.643 2 | 10.000 +-3.809 2 | 5.000 +-12.262 2 | 0.000 +-21.865 2 | 20.000 +-4.166 2 | 75.000 +49.683 1 | -2.341 | |
| 12. | -20.000 +-25.754 1 | 20.000 +9.643 1 | 5.000 +-8.809 1 | 25.000 +7.738 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -3.276 | |
| 13. | -10.000 +-15.754 3 | -23.333 +-33.690 3 | -36.667 +-50.476 3 | -3.333 +-20.595 3 | 20.000 +-1.865 2 | — 0 | — 0 | -3.523 | |
| 14. | 13.000 +7.246 1 | 24.000 +13.643 1 | 23.000 +9.191 1 | 8.000 +-9.262 1 | 28.000 +6.135 1 | — 0 | — 0 | -3.870 | |
| 15. | -15.000 +-20.754 1 | -25.000 +-35.357 1 | 35.000 +21.191 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -6.472 | |
| 16. | -45.000 +-50.754 1 | -35.000 +-45.357 1 | 15.000 +1.191 1 | -5.000 +-22.262 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -7.583 | |
| 17. | 6.250 +0.496 4 | 22.500 +12.143 4 | 37.500 +23.691 4 | 31.250 +13.988 4 | 33.333 +11.468 3 | 15.000 +-9.166 1 | — 0 | -7.679 | |
| 18. | 0.000 +-5.754 9 | -3.333 +-13.690 9 | 4.375 +-9.434 8 | 33.125 +15.863 8 | 52.000 +30.135 5 | 57.500 +33.334 2 | — 0 | -8.270 | |
| 19. | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -84.000 +-105.865 1 | — 0 | — 0 | -8.921 | |
| 20. | 15.000 +9.246 3 | 15.000 +4.643 3 | 15.000 +1.191 3 | 23.333 +6.072 3 | 32.500 +10.635 2 | 40.000 +15.834 2 | 55.000 +29.683 1 | -11.148 | |
| 21. | 10.000 +4.246 2 | 22.500 +12.143 2 | 12.500 +-1.309 2 | 65.000 +47.738 2 | 40.000 +18.135 1 | 45.000 +20.834 1 | — 0 | -14.659 | |
| 22. | 25.000 +19.246 1 | 20.000 +9.643 1 | 65.000 +51.191 1 | 115.000 +97.738 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | -25.530 |